In March 2024, a delegation of World Bank Group directors concluded their tour of Central Asia with a stop at the partially operational Rogan Hydropower Plant. The visit was a culmination of the World Bank’s previous commitments to the project as well as the country, which had faced major obstacles in the decades before the first generator was brought online in 2018. However, the dam is facing major criticism from environmental and humanitarian groups. , as well as geopolitical concerns. Neighbors such as Uzbekistan are concerned that even though the Rogun is located within Tajikistan and away from international borders, diverting water from the watershed could adversely affect Uzbekistan’s cotton industry.
Despite excessive cost issues, the Rogun Dam project has essentially been a colossal failure in a country where over 90% of electricity comes from hydroelectric sources.
Tajikistan is a country of approximately ten million people and is one of the most mountainous countries in the world. Surrounded by the formidable Alay and Pamir mountains, the country is made up of two major population centres. The primary core is on a plain in the south-west of the country where the capital Dushanbe is located. Most of the country’s agricultural production originates from here. The second centers around the city of Khujand in the disputed but fertile Fergana Valley region, which is divided between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. By dividing the territory between the former Soviet republics, a relic of the Soviet era, Moscow tried to ensure that no single power could ever dominate the wider region.
The rugged Tajik terrain means there is no rail route connecting the two main regions. Only the RB01 highway between Dushanbe and the city of Historvë serves as any meaningful land route. To the east lies the highly mountainous, sparsely populated and sometimes restive Gorno-Badakhshan province.
Currently, Tajikistan’s economy is dominated by agriculture and mineral exports. Remittances from Tajiks abroad make its GDP the most remittance-dependent of any country in the world. Since 2000, growth rates have almost always been above 6% annually during the past decade, except for the Great Recession of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the country is still relatively poor, managing a GDP per capita of only $1,356, the same level as in the years before the dissolution of the USSR. Urbanization rates are low; Only about 27% of the country’s population lives in cities. Since the end of its devastating civil war in 1997, the country has managed to recover, taking nearly a generation to recover.
After decades of construction, the hydropower plant near the city of Rogun is set to bring its third and final generator online by the end of 2025. The coronavirus pandemic delayed bringing that third generator online until concrete pouring could begin in July of 2022. Rogan Dam will also be the country’s largest power plant at 3600 MW. According to the IEA, Tajikistan has electricity potential of up to 527 terawatt hours, of which only 4% is being exploited. When the last generator comes online, the total capacity of the country’s electric power system will increase by more than 50% compared to when the dam was not even partially operational.
Naturally, this will have an economic impact on both Tajikistan and its neighbors. Tajikistan needs energy to fuel its growing industrial sector. The addition of additional capacity from its hydropower network means more electricity can be exported to neighboring countries such as Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan.
With its hydropower potential, Tajikistan could soon become a major energy producer which would allow it to punch above its weight in regional geopolitics. The benefits to Dushanbe in this area outweigh the exorbitant costs of the Rogun Dam project.
