James Harden was traded to the Clippers on October 31 and upon his arrival in the lineup on November 6, the Clippers immediately lost five consecutive games.
At that time, whenever I was asked whether the Clippers could work with Harden, I always said the same thing: On paper, Harden’s skills could work next to Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Russell Westbrook, but the approach And the wishes have to match each other. ,
All four are leading ISO scorers, and both Westbrook and Harden serve as ball-dominant floor generals who create offense for both themselves and teammates. But, to play together, someone has to be willing to play off the ball… and Westbrook doesn’t shoot well enough to play his role. But Harden does; He joins Leonard and George as excellent shooters.
So, I thought if Harden moved to the off-ball shooter/secondary engine role, all four of them could work together, with Westbrook running the show and each of the other three being elite finishers on unbalanced defense. Can also attack. That was my thought when the trade happened.
Then, Harden held his introductory press conference and vetoed the idea that he could fit into a system with other players. Instead he said, “I am the system.”
uh oh.
As Harden said, it was predictable that the Clippers would stumble. And they did, for the first few weeks. Then, an amazing thing happened.
The same Westbrook who has resisted coming off the bench in his previous stints, who has been a nightmare for the Lakers over the past few seasons, with both he and LeBron James competing for the floor general role, reportedly Agreed to come out voluntarily. Bench for the Clippers.
And everything changed.
Since Westbrook moved to the bench, the Clippers have won 10 of their last 13 games, with an average scoring differential of +7.3 points per game, which would rank fourth in the NBA and second in the Western Conference if the postseason There would be a difference between them. , They have won five consecutive games, the longest active winning streak in the NBA, and have moved up to the eighth seed in the Western Conference and third in the Pacific Division.
This seems to at least preliminarily answer the question of whether this Clippers team can come together and win after the Harden trade: Yes. Now, the follow-up question arises: For both fantasy basketball and betting purposes, what does this “new normal” look like based on the production levels of individual players? And moving forward, how do the Clippers fit into the various future races in the NBA?
what do the statistics say
We’ll start by comparing individual offensive production for the four main players during the first five games of the pre-Harden season, the first five games of the Harden era when all four started, and the most recent 13 games in which Harden started and Westbrook is coming off the bench.
Charts show each player’s scoring average (PPG) and number of field goal attempts (FGA), number of 3-pointers made (3PG) and 3-point percentage (3P%), and number of assists per game (APG) . and turnover (TO).
There’s a lot here, but let’s get a few things out of the way. First of all, these are all relatively small sample sizes, so some differences may be due to players being hotter or colder from the floor, as well as the quality of the opponent. Notably, George started the season on a heater, shooting 56.0% from the field and 51.2% from downtown in those first five games. In fact, George was making fewer field goal attempts, averaging 28.8 ppg, than he did in the other two eras, when his scoring average was 21.0 ppg or less.
That said, the trend for George to score more behind Westbrook was borne out in larger samples last season as well. He averaged 23.3 ppg in 44 games last season before Westbrook’s arrival, then increased to 25.8 ppg after Westbrook. Part of it is likely chemistry, with George and Westbrook having an established relationship dating back to their time with the Thunder.
George was reportedly one of the biggest supporters of the Clippers bringing Westbrook to town, and they clearly play well together. And part of that chemistry may be speed: Westbrook plays much faster than Harden at the point. Westbrook grabs the rebound and passes forward, creating more fast break opportunities that suit George’s skills. George has the length, athleticism and quickness to finish breaks at the rim, but he also liked to get behind the arc and spot up to hit fast break 3-pointers.
In fact, as a team the Clippers seemed to thrive in that fast-paced game. Note that all three of George, Leonard and Westbrook were knocking down the most 3-pointers and at an unusually high percentage during those first five games. This speaks to the team getting consistent easy looks.
With Harden and Westbrook together in the starting lineup, everything went haywire. While Westbrook pushes the pace, Harden makes more progress in the half-court, and in those first five games the team seemed to be in trouble. Watching the game, there was no flow of aggression. It felt as if the players were taking turns running the ISO, with one guy doing a lot of dribbling while the other four players stood on the sidelines. Both volume and shooting percentage declined.
The roles have been reset, with Harden starting as the obvious floor general. Leonard, like Harden, plays very well in the half-court game. Harden’s assists are up, and both Leonard and George are again knocking down a high percentage of their looks from behind the arc. And the Clippers’ offense is now lukewarm, making them a nightmare for their opponents.
How does this affect betting on the Clippers
This is a good argument to discuss the futures market of the Clippers as a team. According to ESPN BET, the Clippers are +3000 to win the NBA Championship. They are at +1100 to win the Western Conference, and are one of three teams at +380 to win the Pacific Division.
The Clippers have been extremely lively in the last two markets in those odd situations, and make for an interesting longshot play for the NBA title as well. They are the hottest team in the NBA right now, clearly playing better than any team in the Western Conference, and their long-term projections look just as strong.
According to our Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Clippers currently have the highest score in the Western Conference (T6th in the NBA), well ahead of all four other Pacific Division teams (the Suns have the 2nd highest BPI in the Pacific ), and they are 12th in the NBA). The Clippers are just one game out of first place in the Pacific, and have defeated last season’s Pacific Division champion Kings by a total of 34 points in their last two games.
The one wild card that makes me hesitant on the Clippers is the specter of health. Leonard and George missed a combined average of 45+ games during their respective seasons last season, but neither has missed a game so far this season. If he can maintain his health, it will be great for the Clippers’ division/conference/league championship aspirations. But, given his history, it’s hard to expect this level of health throughout the season.
ground level
It seems that the Clippers have found their level playing with Harden. Leonard is playing like a top-20 fantasy hoops producer on a per-game basis, while Harden is just behind the top-30 and George is nearing the top-40.
Westbrook doesn’t have a lot of fantasy value in his role off the bench, but there is a big upside if injuries or circumstances force him to step back into a larger role.
And as a team, if they can stay healthy, I see a lot of value in the Clippers in the futures markets, especially at +380 to win a division where they are only out of the first game and obviously Playing the best ball since.
