The Sacramento Kings are signing free agent DeMar DeRozan in a three-year, $74 million sign-and-trade deal that also involves the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Saturday night. As part of the deal, Harrison Barnes and an unprotected 2031 pick swap will go to the Spurs, while Chris Duarte, two second-round picks and cash will go to the Bulls.
The Kings are looking to add players like De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray and Malik Monk after missing the playoffs last season. This deal has significant implications for fantasy basketball and betting. But will it make the Kings a true contender in the Western Conference? Let’s take a closer look. — Eric Moody
Fantasy value: Can DeRozan succeed as a scorer in Sacramento?
DeRozan, a six-time All-Star, will turn 35 next month. He has had a stellar three years with the Bulls. During this time, DeRozan scored an average of 25.5 PPG. A large portion of this scoring came from the midrange area. DeRozan has been the top scorer on midrange attempts during that period and the gap between him and second-highest scorer Kevin Durant is huge. Last season, he averaged 24.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG and 5.3 APG. DeRozan also finished second to Stephen Curry in Clutch Player of the Year voting. Also, last season he led the league in total minutes played at the age of 34, making him the oldest player to achieve this feat. DeRozan has not missed more than 11 games in a season since 2012.
Early in his career, DeRozan spent most of his time as a shooting guard before moving to small forward over the last five years. He will remain a top fantasy option with the Kings, especially in point leagues versus category formats. However, he won’t help the Kings fill their need for size, length and defense, which is important since Sacramento has been in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions over that time frame. — moody
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Betting implications: Are the Kings legitimate contenders in 2024-25?
In 2023, the Kings make the playoffs for the first time since the 2005-2006 season. However, last season, Sacramento landed in the play-in tournament and lost to the New Orleans Pelicans in a matchup for the No. 8 seed. Although the Kings were desperate for someone other than Fox to run the offense and make shots in a high-level playoff setting, I can’t shake the feeling that DeRozan’s addition is more about satisfying an ownership group looking to recapture the magic from the 2022-2023 season. Let me explain.
Sacramento has ranked in the top half of the league in points scored per 100 possessions the past two seasons. The Kings’ mantra is to play at a fast pace and outplay opponents while playing mediocre defense. Although DeRozan gives the Kings a legitimate third option behind Fox and Sabonis, the reality is that defense is the greater concern here.
The problem is that DeRozan isn’t very good on defense, and he doesn’t make much of an impact on offense when he doesn’t have the ball. The Kings already have a lot of ball-handling with Fox and Monk, both of whom are at high usage rates. Additionally, the Kings run most of their offense through Domantas Sabonis. His system emphasizes off-ball play and movement with his players, but DeRozan is more of a ball-stopper. While he’s a solid playmaker when he has the ball, Fox and Monk also aren’t known for their exceptional defense.
Additionally, the Kings don’t have a high-end rim protector, and to be fair, Sabonis is more of an offensive player. Barnes will be missed, especially on the defensive end. Although Keone Ellis emerged as a great defender late last season, with DeRozan’s arrival, will Ellis even get enough time to make an impact?
Even though it’s a cliché, the saying “defense wins championships” is true in the NBA. Adding a talented player like DeRozan may seem like a great move on the surface, but the Kings’ defensive problems will be difficult to overcome in a strong Western Conference. Until Sacramento addresses these issues, it’s hard to take them seriously as a contender for a conference title (+3300 on ESPN BET) or an NBA Championship (+7500). However, DeRozan raises the Kings’ regular season floor in terms of wins, given that Sacramento now has two top clutch performers in DeRozan (+20000 to win regular season MVP) and Fox. This also makes betting on the Kings to win the Pacific Division (+370) an interesting bet. — moody
Pacific Division Odds:
Other NBA-related activities:
Klay Thompson at Dallas Mavericks: Thompson left his Warriors home and joined a Mavericks team that desperately needs a consistent 3-point shooter on the wing. During the regular season, the Mavericks saw two departed wings — Tim Hardaway Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. — play a combined 50+ minutes per game, and in that time they combined for 23.0 PPG on a combined 8.1 of 18.9 (42.9 FG%) from the field and 3.8 of 10.7 (35.5 3P%) from behind the arc. Thompson should be able to produce very close to that amount of scoring and 3-point shooting in about 60% of his minutes due to improved shooting efficiency. Thompson should get better shots playing off the gravity and playmaking of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in Dallas, something he wasn’t used to even in Golden State. Thompson needs to be so mobile, which has become more challenging with aging and serious foot injuries, and he should get more opportunities, especially in the corners.
Heading into the offseason, I had Thompson ranked 130th in my initial rankings while he was with the Warriors. This move will likely move him back into my top-100 as a solid early flex option.
Buddy Hield at Golden State Warriors: The logic of this move seems obvious. The Warriors lost Klay Thompson and replaced him with the player whose offensive game is most similar to his. Last season with the Warriors, Thompson averaged 17.9 PPG on 6.4 of 14.7 (43.2%) FGs and 3.5 of 9.0 (38.7 3P%) from downtown in 29.7 MPG. Hield has career averages of 43.4 FG% and 30.0 3P%, which are very similar to the shots he gets with the Warriors. Thompson started most of last season, but by the end he was coming off the bench. Hield also mixed starting and coming off the bench for both the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers last season.
One area in which Hield has a clear edge over Thompson is availability. Hield has missed an average of about one game per season in his career, and that durability helps his projected fantasy totals. Prior to the move, Hield was pegged to a borderline fantasy roster spot in the 130s of the rankings. With the move, he moved out of the top-100, and is firmly in play for a starting flex spot in specific fantasy hoops leagues.
Harrison Barnes from San Antonio Spurs: Barnes is a 12-year veteran with a history of availability and professional scoring both inside and beyond the arc. Barnes becomes the second notable veteran to join the very young Spurs this offseason, and will likely be expected to join Chris Paul to help Victor Wembanyama and the developing Spurs learn to play winning basketball. It’s unclear if Barnes will start or come off the bench, but he’ll likely score more per minute playing against Wembanyama than he did against a Kings squad that was loaded with perimeter scoring options.
Prior to this move, I had Barnes at 141 in my very early rankings. With this move he is likely to move into the 110 to 130 range, with the variability associated with his uncertain role. We will have a better idea of what his role should be later in the offseason.
Caleb Martin for the Philadelphia 76ers: Martin has oscillated between starting and coming off the bench for the Heat the past two seasons, but appears to be the 76ers’ fifth starter this season. He will be a role player 3-and-D forward on a 76ers team with three high-usage scorers, so he will likely produce numbers similar to the 10.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 3-pointers and 1.4 combined steals and blocks he made in 23 starts for the Heat last season.
Before the move, Martin was 182nd in my very early rankings, well out of draft range in all but the deepest fantasy leagues. If he’s a full-time starter in Philadelphia, his elevation could put him closer to the top-150 and consideration for late-round fantasy drafts. — Andre Snellings
