Deontay Wilder vs Zhilei Zhang fight predictions, start time, odds, preview, undercard, expert picks

When Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang face off in the ring on Saturday in Saudi Arabia, they will know it could be a do-or-die situation for their championship hopes. Two of the heavyweight division’s most powerful punchers, Wilder and Zhang both come into this bout on the back of losses in their most recent outings, which have dropped them down to boxing’s glamour division.

Interestingly, both Wilder and Zhang’s most recent losses came at the hands of Joseph Parker, who entered the ring as an underdog in both bouts. Parker is now ranked above both men in the heavyweight division, which is in a boom period following Oleksandr Usyk’s recent win over Tyson Fury, becoming the division’s first four-belt undisputed champion.

Wilder is hoping to claim one of these championships, having previously held the WBC championship from 2015 to 2020, where he suffered a knockout loss to Fury.

Wilder is one of the hardest pound-for-pound punchers in boxing history, scoring 41 knockouts in his 42 career wins. That power was not able to defeat Fury in their three encounters, where Wilder secured split draws before being stopped twice. The Parker fight raised new concerns for Wilder as he did not fight aggressively, landed very few punches and generally did not appear interested in getting involved in the fight en route to losing by scores of 118-111, 118-110 and 120-108.

“I’m very confident in what I’m saying,” Wilder said in his final press conference this week. “I’m very excited to work with Eddie, we haven’t had a great relationship before, but changes come over time and I’ve been a part of changes. Right now, we’re like a warrior’s drum, with the same beat and the same sound, and on this left (with his four teammates in the 5 x 5 event) you can feel this energy that we’re not playing any games. We’ve come to win and we’ve come to beat them. Five vs. five, we’re going to do a five-man sweep and I’m looking forward to Saturday night.”

That same level of passivity and lack of energy could prove disastrous for Wilder against a fighter like Zhang, who has plenty of power of his own and likes to leave his hands open early in bouts. In 26 career wins, Zhang has stopped 21 opponents.

After going undefeated in his first 25 professional bouts, Zhang finally suffered defeat when he lost a somewhat controversial decision to Filip Hrgović in August 2022. Zhang won the WBO interim title after that loss by defeating Joe Joyce, and retained the belt with another knockout in the rematch.

Zhang’s fight with Parker also highlighted some of Zhang’s shortcomings, particularly her tendency to run out of steam at various points in the fight. Several bouts have shown Zhang fading in the later rounds, making for an interesting contrast between her early aggressive nature fading away and Wilder’s recent inability to pull the trigger.

There are a few other notable fights on the card, including another heavyweight bout when Filip Hrgovic takes on Daniel Dubois for the vacant IBF interim championship. Hrgovic has long been the IBF mandatory challenger and thought the fight with Dubois would be for the IBF world title after the sanctioning body said they would strip the Usyk vs Fury winner if he went ahead with a contractually obligated rematch instead of defending against Hrgovic.

Instead, the IBF is taking time to consider whether to grant Usyk an exemption for the Fury rematch. If they move to remove Usyk, the winner of Hrgovic vs. Dubois would likely be crowned world champion. There was some confusion this week when Hrgovic was asked if he knew the title would be at stake on Saturday.

“What do you mean it’s not? It should be,” Hrgovic said. “It should be for the belt, man. What are you talking about? It is. Yeah. That’s what I heard. I mean, that was the plan from the beginning so what changed now? Who said that? You. I don’t know, man, I hope it’s for the title. That’s what I was told. I don’t know.”

WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol was originally scheduled to appear on the card against IBF, WBO and WBC champion Artur Beterbiev in a bout to be crowned the undisputed champion. After Beterbiev was forced out of the bout due to injury, Bivol decided to stay on the card and will defend his title against undefeated Malik Zinaid.

Before we get to predictions and expert picks on the main event, let’s take a look at the rest of the undercard with the latest odds.

Wilder vs. Zhang fight card, odds

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Prediction

Fights are rarely as difficult to predict as Wilder vs. Zhang. That’s because we simply don’t know which version of Wilder is going to emerge. Wilder has better speed and better power than Zhang, but that means nothing if Wilder approaches this fight the same way he did against Parker. Zhang at least threw at Parker and scored two knockdowns that kept the final scorecards close while Wilder landed only 17 punches per round and landed 39 punches in the entire fight.

If Wilder is ready to play and has the chance to get his wish again, the easy option is for him to do what he has always done and knock Zhang down with an explosive shot. If Wilder doesn’t have that fire, Zhang will quickly apply the pressure and accumulate rounds to build a comfortable lead. But will that lead hold if his tank runs out and he becomes an open target for Wilder’s right hand?

Everything is speculative at this point, but it keeps coming out that Wilder has admitted he struggled to pull the trigger against Parker, and that’s usually not a good sign in the later stages of a fighter’s career. Pick: Zhilei Zhang via UD