It’s here and it’s beautiful. The 88th Masters kicks off the week with 89 players dreaming of wearing the green jacket. Those aspirations are still alive and well before the first tee shot is hit at Augusta National Golf Club, the annual host of the year’s first major championship.
Unlike the PGA Championship, US Open and The Open, the Masters returns to the same venue every year. Although there are some small changes here and there to the course, the core of Augusta National has stood the test of time with those who have solved the puzzle once before generally finding the answer year after year.
That’s why Phil Mickelson, without any form, finished runner-up to Jon Rahm in last year’s tournament at the age of 52. That’s why his final round 65 was the best final round of his Masters career… *checks notes*… 30th appearance. This is why even old guys like Fred Couples and Tom Watson have made early allegations in their 50s. This is why you can never reject anyone at first sight.
Curricular knowledge is essential, but it is just one part of the equation. While the ghosts of past Masters champions appear on the leaderboard from time to time, only those who are truly comfortable with all aspects of their game will have the power to see it until Sunday evening. A player doesn’t just fall into the trap of winning a green jacket (just ask Dustin Johnson), he often gravitates towards it and peaks at exactly the right time (you can ask Johnson about this too).
Watch all four rounds of the 2024 Masters starting Thursday masters live As we follow the world’s best golfers through Augusta National with a select group, check in at the famous Amen Corner and watch the round one leaders on holes 15 and 16. watch live cbssports.comThe CBS Sports App And paramount+,
Let’s take a look at the 10 most recent Masters winners and identify what trends exist as we attempt to narrow down the field. 89 Players will find out this year’s champion.
1. Then what is your age?
It’s been 38 years since 46-year-old Jack Nicklaus wore his sixth green jacket and captured the last of his 18 major championships. With this victory Nicklaus became the oldest winner in the history of the tournament. Over the past 10 years, even with champions like Dustin Johnson (36), Sergio Garcia (37) and Tiger Woods (43), the average age of a winner has been under 31. Since Johnson’s win in 2020, the last three winners have been under the age of 30. Mickelson threatened with his runner-up finish last season, but it’s safe to assume that if you’re over the age of 46, you’re probably not going to win.
is removed: Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal
2. maybe No remember your first time
Only three players have won the Masters on their first attempt: Horton Smith in the first Masters, Gene Sarazen in 1935, and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. While a debutant hasn’t won in 45 years, there have been several close calls in recent memory with Jordan Spieth (2014), Sungjae Im (2020) and Will Zalatoris (2021) looking threatening. With such a large class and names like Windham Clark and Ludwig Aberg trending, this streak is likely to end this year. But, until then…
wiped out: Windham Clark, Ludwig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Nikolai Højgaard, Austin Acroet, Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Nick Dunlop, Peter Malnati, Grayson Murray, Matthew Pavone, Adam Schenk, Ryo Hisatsune, Lee Hodges, Santiago De La Fuente(A), Christo Lamprecht(A), Neil Shipley(A), Jasper Stubbs(A)
3. It’s a steady climb
They say Augusta National is an acquired taste. One may not understand the nuances the first or second time, but once the game plan is made, all that is left on the table is implementation. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before wearing the green jacket, and all 10 had previously finished in the top-40.
is removed: Max Homa, Cameron Davis, Kurt Kitayama, Adrian Meronc, Eric van Rooyen
4. What have you done for me lately?
Every green jacket winner since 2014 has finished in the top-15 on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in a stroke-play event in the calendar year leading up to the Masters. Seven of them had already entered the winner’s circle the year before – see Rahm in 2023, Scheffler in 2022, Johnson in 2020 and Spieth in 2015 – while eight had finished on the podium as a result of a top-three result. We will use the same top-15 cutoff point for LIV golf events as well.
is removed: Rickie Fowler, Stewart Hagestad(A), Victor Hovland, Tom Kim, Camilo Villegas, Bubba Watson, Danny Willett, Gary Woodland
5. Major-Championship Pedigree
There have been several first-time major winners who have achieved success at Augusta, but none have arrived without some prior experience on a comparable stage. Eight of the 10 most recent Masters champions already had at least one major runner-up result and all 10 had a T6 finish or better. In the year before winning, four of the final 10 had finished runner-up at a major championship, while nine had finished in the top-15.
is removed: Byong Hun An, Sam Burns, Ryan Fox, Adam Hadwin, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Moore, Joaquin Niemann, JT Poston, Nick Taylor, Sahith Thegala
And just like that, we’ve ruled out 50 players…
6. Let’s get technical
Data from strokes can be a beautiful thing. In the calendar year prior to their respective Masters crownings, all 10 champions were averaging at least +0.67 strokes per round, while the group average was +2.17. Currently only four players in the world have an average higher than +2.00.
It was not Rahm (+2.75), Scheffler (+2.50) nor Spieth (+2.38) who boasted the most impressive metrics ahead of their wins, rather it was Watson (+3.02) and Johnson (+3.91) who All three were left behind – the stroke hurdle. Some former Masters champions and one major name will unfortunately be leaving us.
is removed: Keegan Bradley, Thorbjorn Olesen, Luke List, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka, Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka
7. Speak softly and carry a big stick
Off-the-tee numbers are the most predictive indicator of success in the world of golf; The best golfers in the world currently are the best drivers of the ball in the game. The same applies to Augusta, where the last 10 winners were gaining an average of at least +0.60 strokes off the tee per round in the calendar year of their win. Patrick Reed was the lowest man of this group, gaining +0.14 strokes off the tee per round, so that would leave a few names out.
is removed: Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Tyrell Hatton, Cameron Smith
8. Iron it
Augusta National serves some of the best iron players in the world (such as Woods). Over the past three months, Scheffler has been the best in this category (+1.57 strokes gained approach per round), while many of the bigger names have struggled with their scoring clubs. The last 10 winners have averaged a minimum of +0.40 strokes per round – once players with some historically strong approach didn’t even come close to sniffing.
is removed: Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Harris English, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau
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9. It is important to have a plan B
The stuff hits the fan during major championships, and the Masters is no different. Many times, there will be some type of disturbance during 72 holes, and the player’s short game will be tested. Whether it’s Scheffler’s chip-in on No. 3 in the final round in 2022 or Danny Willett’s up-and-down on the 71st hole in 2016, the green is almost required in some shape or form. This is where some popular names fall short of the +0.20 strokes gained around the green clip from the last 10 winners.
is removed: Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Corey Connors, Adam Scott
So where does that leave us?
Only seven out of a field of 89 golfers – Scotty Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Chris Kirk and Sergio Garcia – remains. I’ll admit I’m pretty surprised by some of these!
Scheffler, Schauffele and Matsuyama were always going to be shoo-ins; You probably don’t need me to tell you this. Thomas is interesting in that he will have a brand new caddy and most of his good play came early in the year, similar to Kirk’s win at Kapalua in the PGA Tour’s season opener. Finau is finding his rhythm and Garcia lost in his second playoff of the year at LIV Golf, but neither has been super reliable with the putter.
Let’s put it this way: If you gave me a fair price on Scheffler, Schauffele and Matsuyama vs. Plains, you’d get my attention.
