With the Champions League returning this week as the Round of 16 kicks off, we take a look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for the competition in 2023-24.
At the start of the season, the Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the 2023–24 Champions League season and found that Manchester City won the competition 38.9% of the time. When the draw was made they were strong contenders to retain their title.
Now, with the competition returning on Tuesday, with City heading to Denmark to face FC Copenhagen and European giants Real Madrid taking on RB Leipzig, we decided it was a good time to look at where the Super How the computer rates each team’s chances.
So, in the latest batch of 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, how many times each team advanced to each stage of the competition, as well as how many times they won it.
Only four of the remaining 16 teams were victorious in more than one-tenth of those simulations. City remain favorites to win the Champions League again after winning the treble last season, having done so 32.1% of the time. At the time of writing, they have more than a 50% chance of reaching the final.
After breaking the psychological barrier by winning Europe’s biggest competition for the first time in its history last season, Pep Guardiola’s side are the team to beat in 2023-24.
Real Madrid are second favorites to win the Champions League, with the 14-time winners ranked 15th in 15.4% of the supercomputer’s simulations. Madrid have reached the final in 28.1% of simulations, while they are big favorites to overtake Leipzig and have only a 50% chance of reaching the last four.
Last season’s losing finalists, Inter Milan, are considered the third most likely team to win the Champions League (11.6%), while reaching the final in less than a quarter of the time in the supercomputer’s simulations. The Serie A leaders are making great progress in the second half of the season, going unbeaten inside 90 minutes in their last 25 competitive matches.
They are on a run of seven consecutive wins and are favorites to overtake Diego Simeone’s side ahead of a tricky round of 16 clash with Atletico Madrid. History tells us that Atlético should never be completely written off, but with only a 6.1% chance of reaching the final and a 2.4% chance of an outright victory, it is more important than ever if Atlético progresses in the competition. It will be a big surprise.
Harry Kane’s chances of ending his wait for silverware suffered a huge blow on Saturday when Bayern Munich were edged aside by Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Although they may not have missed out on winning domestic trophies this season, the Champions League may now have taken on added importance. According to the Opta supercomputer (10.1%) they are the fourth favorite to win the trophy, while according to our simulations they are the second most likely team to make their last-16 tie, ahead of tournament outsider Lazio. 79.3% of the time.
At 8.4%, Arsenal still have a notable chance of winning the Champions League for the first time, while they reach the final in about the fifth simulation. After going through a difficult time around Christmas when their form dipped slightly, Mikel Arteta’s side have recovered in time for the Champions League knockout stage. They beat West Ham on Sunday and are now on a run of four wins in a row as their round-of-16 clash with Porto looms.
Paris Saint-Germain is the sixth most likely team to win the Champions League, doing so in 6.4% of simulations. The runaway Ligue 1 leaders are on course to win their domestic league once again and appear to have become a better collective unit since losing star players Neymar and Lionel Messi. The Champions League is the trophy they want more than any other, and over the years it has always been beyond them, but with Kylian Mbappe, anything can happen. This week they will face Real Sociedad and the chances of defeating them are 64.5%.
Barcelona (3.4%) and Borussia Dortmund (3.0%) are next on our predictions list, but neither team is having a very good season domestically and will struggle if they are to beat the best of the best and Europe’s elite competition. They will have to improve dramatically if they want to win.
Seven teams are believed to have a 1.5% or less chance of winning the competition. In Porto (two titles) and PSV Eindhoven (one title), those seven teams have some European pedigree, but RB Leipzig, Real Sociedad, Napoli, Lazio and Copenhagen will all be first-time winners. Copenhagen’s chances of finishing ahead of City are extremely slim, and their chances of winning the whole thing are so low that they approach 0% to one decimal place.
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