What to see: For the first time in this rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are coming to Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks have met six times, with the Bills winning three of the four regular season meetings, and the Chiefs winning both postseason games (2020 and 2021). The difference for the Bills in the regular and postseason contests has been defensive success. In the regular season, the Bills held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game and produced nine takeaways, but in the playoffs, Kansas City averaged 40 points per game and committed only one turnover. There will be a big test ahead for a Bills defense dealing with a variety of injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Mahomes and Allen will combine for at least six TD passes. These two always perform well when they play, especially in the postseason. Mahomes and Allen combined for five scoring passes in the AFC Championship Game following the 2020 season and seven scoring passes in the divisional round the following season. The circumstances will be less than ideal, but that hasn’t stopped them before. –Adam Teacher
Statistics to know: One area the Bills can separate from the Chiefs is winning the turnover battle. The Bills committed 30 turnovers this season, the second most in the NFL (the Ravens and Giants committed 31 turnovers each). The Chiefs have committed 17 turnovers this season, the 27th-most in the NFL.
Matchup X Factor: The health of the Bills’ cornerbacks. Terron Johnson (concussion), Rasoul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all injured. While Buffalo looks like the better team on paper, the weak secondary seems like a dangerous combination against Mahomes. –Walder
Game-Plan Key: In the Week 14 matchup between these teams, Bills running back James Cook had 83 receiving yards. Look for the Bills to get Cooks involved in the passing game again with backfield releases and screens. And look for Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to play a key role in limiting those plays. — Bowen
Caretaker’s Note: Shawn Hochuli is one of the NFL’s more active referees. During the regular season, he threw an NFL-high 14 flags for disturbing the passer, five more than the next closest referee. Since becoming a referee in 2018, he has led the league with 61 such flags. This could prove to be interesting, as Allen has become adept at drawing fouls on the passer. They played the most six draws in the league in 2023. Mahomes only drew one. — Seifert
Betting Nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 7-2 ATS when he is not at least a seven-point favorite. Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff career.
Moody’s Choice: Bill 31, Major 27
Walder’s Choice: Major 32, Bill 31
FPI Prediction: BUF, 56.6% (by 2.3 points on average)
